It’s that time of year again when Central New Yorkers are keeping an eye on the trees and wondering what kind of colors we’ll see in the coming weeks. Of course, summer temperatures and precipitation play a significant role. Professor of earth and atmospheric science at Cornell University Art DeGaetano says conditions were pretty favorable for trees to gain sugars that help produce their color.
"The idea is you don't want the trees to be too stressed over the summer," DeGaetano said. "If we look at the summer as a whole, we had adequate rainfall for most of the summer or on average through the summer. Temperatures weren't particularly hot or cold, really, as an aggregate. So, it was was pretty much a a decent summer if you were a tree.”
DeGaetano says now, the trees are simply taking their cues for when to begin changing.
“As we move into September, it's really just the the weather signaling the trees to start to shut down production and quit making chlorophyll," DeGaetano said. "So most of that is day is length of day. They're responding to the lack of photo period or the shortening of day.”
He says cooling temperatures are also a factor. But DeGaetano says the changing climate could eventually upset some of these patterns. He’s also director of the Northeast Regional Climate Center.
“Even though precipitation is supposed to increase in our region, summers are projected to be drier," DeGaetano said. "You'll have a lot more evaporation, most of the change in precipitation coming in the winter time and things like that. So the idea of seeing more short term summer droughts under climate change in upstate New York would adversely affect the fall foliage.”
For now, he says peak color in the Adirondacks and Catskills should arrive over the next two weeks, and here in Central New York by the second week of October.
