SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
The U.S. is sending even more Navy ships and top-of-the- line warplanes into the Middle East. This comes as the U.S. and Iran are talking about that country's nuclear program, though without any signs of a breakthrough. NPR national security correspondent Greg Myre joins us to talk about this buildup and whether conflict can be averted. Hi, Greg.
GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Hey, Scott.
DETROW: I mean, the U.S. has a pretty big military presence in the Middle East already. Now it's sending more. What's the latest?
MYRE: Yeah. In the last day or so, the U.S. appears to be adding another 50 or so fighter jets to the region. We're talking about F-35s, F-22s, F-16s, and a sizable force was already in place. The Pentagon isn't talking about this, but this is coming from open sources, flight tracking groups on social media who do have a pretty good record for accuracy. Now, President Trump has confirmed a second aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, is going from the Caribbean to the Mediterranean. And each carrier usually has somewhere around 75 planes aboard.
So this is becoming a very large force with a concentration of planes and ships that can carry out airstrikes. We should note there's no buildup of U.S. ground troops anywhere in the region. These pieces are all still moving into place, but it's well beyond what's needed for leverage against Iran. It increasingly looks like a force that's prepared to carry out an extended air campaign.
DETROW: What's the why though? Does President Trump want to apply pressure to force a nuclear deal, or is this about maybe overthrowing the Iranian regime?
MYRE: Yeah. Scott, that's the big question. And President Trump is intentionally ambiguous about what he wants. If he wants a nuclear deal, that will require more negotiations. The latest round was yesterday in Geneva. The U.S. probably can't bomb its way to a nuclear agreement. In contrast, if Trump wants regime change, then he would probably have to launch a major military operation. The Shiite Muslim clerics running Iran aren't going to negotiate themselves out of power. So logically, Trump's goal should determine which path he chooses, but as often the case with this president, he's leaving his options open. He says he wants a deal, but he's also threatening to attack.
DETROW: And of course, what the president says can often change day to day, minute to minute. But big picture, is there any sense anywhere that Trump might be leaning one way or another?
MYRE: Yeah. So this is a question put to a panel today at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. I want to play a couple of the answers for you. First, here's Vali Nasr, a leading Iran analyst.
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VALI NASR: I think it's 50/50 because I think it's 50/50 in Trump's head. And neither Iran nor the United States really want to get into a very messy war, and the risks of that are quite high. At least that's going for the fact that in the end, they may step back from the brink.
MYRE: And here's Susan Ziadeh, a U.S. ambassador to Qatar during the Obama administration.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
SUSAN ZIADEH: You have arrayed this huge armada into...
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: Yeah.
ZIADEH: ...The region.
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: Yeah.
ZIADEH: And just the fact that you have so much firepower creates a momentum of its own. And sometimes that momentum is a little hard to just put the brakes on and say, that's it. We're not doing anything.
DETROW: Greg, I feel like it's fair to point out here President Trump has a track record of aggressive action against Iran. How does that factor into this?
MYRE: Yeah. Scott, he's taken three really risky moves with Iran. He tore up a nuclear deal back in 2018. He ordered an airstrike that killed Iran's leading general in 2020, and he bombed Iran's nuclear facilities last June - all of them risky but also quick, one-and-done actions with limited blowback from Iran. And what we're looking at now would just be a whole different level. If the goal is regime change, you'd certainly have to plan for the possibility of a much larger, open-ended operation.
DETROW: We saw this buildup with Venezuela. We saw military action in Venezuela. But it was very quick, just a few hours, the seizure of the president, Nicolás Maduro, and that was it. Could there be something similar like that with Iran?
MYRE: Yeah. I don't think that's a great analogy, just 'cause from a military perspective, the Venezuela operation went very smoothly. That's not always the case, and it would be much harder to pull this off in Iran. Also, Iran can hit back at U.S. forces in the region and at Israel with ballistic missiles. So the threat against - from Iran can't be knocked out in a day. It would be ongoing.
DETROW: That's NPR's Greg Myre. Thank you so much.
MYRE: Sure thing, Scott. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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