On Friday, President Trump announced a plan to temporarily lower tariff rates on some imported ground beef in hopes of reducing the price of the American dietary standby.
Trump said in a post on social media that the U.S. would "allow up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef to be imported with no out of quota tariff. We have a commitment that this beef will be sold at 25 percent below current market prices."
The announcement, which rankled some U.S. ranchers and Republican lawmakers, comes just weeks ahead of the November midterm elections, when the economy and cost of living are expected to be among the top issues on voters' minds.
As inflation has risen, ground beef has often been a bellwether of surging consumer prices. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average cost of a pound of ground beef jumped nearly 57% over the last five years.
Yet agricultural industry experts say they don't expect Trump's plan to lead to a major decline in prices at the meat counter.
"I don't think it's going to be $1.25 [less]" under Trump's plan, said Andrew Griffith, a University of Tennessee professor who studies livestock economics. "Now, we might see a quarter to 35 cents [less]."
U.S. consumers who bought ground beef last month paid an average of $6.89 per pound, federal data showed.
A major price decrease is unlikely
One reason the proposal may have little impact on ground beef prices is that the amount of ground beef subject to the lower tariff rate is relatively small compared to America's strong appetite for red meat.
Jaime Luke, an assistant professor and livestock economist at Michigan State University, said an additional 300,000 metric tons of ground beef would represent about a 2% increase in the domestic beef supply. "So when we look big picture, it maybe isn't as big of a number as you might think when you first see it outright," she said.
Luke added that it was unclear from Trump's announcement if the imported ground beef would be on top of what was already destined for the American market — or product that was coming to the U.S. anyway and would simply benefit from a lower tariff rate.
If consumers do see any cost savings, Griffith said, they'll likely be temporary.
Trump announced that the lower tariff rate would apply for the next 90 days, but it may not take the U.S. that long to import 300,000 metric tons — or 661 million pounds — of ground beef, he noted. The U.S. brought in about 542 million pounds of ground beef in June alone, according to the USDA.
Griffith said shoppers could see lower prices for a short time, but they shouldn't expect major savings. For the typical U.S. consumer eating nearly 60 pounds of ground beef per year, a 25-cent price decrease would mean an annual savings of $15.
Food prices are a salient issue ahead of the midterms
Trump's announcement on Friday irked the U.S. cattle industry, which has been facing pressures from rising operating costs, a parasitic screwworm and foreign competition — leading to the smallest domestic cattle herd in decades.
"Undercutting American farmers and ranchers with inferior product from foreign competitors does nothing to create market confidence or encourage rebuilding the herd," the National Cattlemen's Beef Association said in a statement.
Cattle producers similarly criticized another Trump proposal last year to import more beef from Argentina.
Last week's announcement even elicited rare rebukes from Republican lawmakers, some of whom are up for reelection in a few months.
"This hurts!" said Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota, who called for better protections for domestic producers. Montana Sen. Tim Sheehy said Trump's "heart is in the right place on wanting lower prices for the American people," but said the plan will "make it more difficult for American ranchers to rebuild our herd and bring prices down."
Yet voters are increasingly looking to their elected officials to do something about skyrocketing food prices, which were up 3% in July compared to the previous year.
A survey by the University of Illinois and Purdue University in May found that nearly 41% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats said their votes in November would be strongly influenced by what candidates say about food affordability.
"I don't think it's the only issue," said Maria Kalaitzandonakes, a University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign economics professor who leads the survey, "but I think there's a large share of voters that wants politicians to convey that they have a plan to make sure that cost of living and affordability remain a top issue."
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