Central New Yorkers of Ukrainian heritage have been watching with great concern as Russia continues to amass troops on its border with Ukraine. WAER’s Scott Willis caught up with two people with close ties to Ukraine who worry about what a possible second invasion might mean for their country and the world.
The implications are huge. Since the first invasion in 2014, 14,000 Ukrainians have died, and about two million people have been displaced. Lida Buniak is Syracuse Branch President of the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America.
"This is not an invasion. This is a continuation of the aggression."
She wants everyone to understand that despite what President Vladimir Putin says, Russia and only Russia is instigating and escalating.
"We don't have anything against the Russian people. We are brothers and sisters. There are marriages, relationships, relatives. It's with the government. The [Ukrainians] aren't separatists. These are people who are controlled and planted by the Russian government."
Buniak says the Ukrainian people are resolute and determined. She has family in western Ukraine, far from the Russian border, as well as friends. One of them is from the Syracuse area.
"He's in agriculture. His wife is from Ukraine. They're all staying, even though he's an American citizen. Nobody is really trying to leave. It's not because they're not aware of the danger. I think a lot of its just the feeling of determination. We have businesses there, we have family there. The Ukrainian people themselves, since they've been independent for 30 years, they are not going to give up their sovereignty."
Mark Temnycky is a Syracuse University Maxwell School graduate who’s been covering eastern Europe for six years as an accredited freelance journalist. He also has extended family in western Ukraine.
"The Ukrainian people are still trying to live their lives the best they can, day by day normal. Of course the situation is very unsettling. If people start 'running for the hills,' that may unsettle things and make things worse."
"If an invasion were to happen, we could be looking at five million displaced people. We could be looking at 50,000 innocent civilian casualties, on top of the 14,000 soldiers since 2014. It's pretty devastating," said Lida Buniak.
The US has provided about $2.7 billion in military aid to Ukraine over the past several years. But Mark Temnycky says Putin has the upper hand over any potential response by the US and its NATO allies.
"Western leaders, because of their democratic values and principles, they have to appeal to our congressional or parliamentary bodies and get an approval. The United States, Canada, Australia, the European Union, and NATO, which is comprised of roughly 40 countries, all have to come to a consensus. Unfortunately, while the West debates on how to respond to this situation, Putin can do whatever he wants. Hypothetically, he could invade and by the time the West has a decision on how they want to punish him, he could finish his campaign at that point."
Temnycky is also a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasian Center, a DC foreign policy thinktank. He says sanctions have blown a $100 billion hole in the Russian economy, and he commends the west for maintaining and ramping up sanctions. But he wonders just how effective they are.
"It hasn't changed their behavior of how they interact with the international community. They've meddled in foreign elections, they keep doing cyber attacks, they keep turning off the taps for gas, they're invading their neighbors, etcetera."
He says the situation is bigger than just Ukraine.
"It's about promoting democracy around the world, and the territorial integrity of countries. If Russia invades Ukraine without much consequence, it'll send a message to other aggressive countries such as China who may pursue similar behavior in Taiwan."
Or, embolden nuclear powers like North Korea and Iran. Temnycky and Lida Buniak says no one knows Putin’s end game. She says it could be an invasion at any time, or a long-term threat to get concessions.
"If this drag on longer, which it may, I hope that our allies won't abandon us; that they will understand the importance of supporting Ukraine and our quest for our sovereignty."
