On the occasion of the fourth anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, WAER News checked in with two Syracuse University experts who look at the war from a military and refugee perspective.
THE MILITARY LENS
SU Maxwell School Professor Robert Murrett doesn’t see much changing anytime soon as the war between Russia and Ukraine enters its fifth year.
The deputy director for the Institute for Security Policy and Law is also a retired Vice Admiral of the U.S. Navy. He's followed the military capabilities of both Russia and Ukraine. Early on, Murrett said, most observers felt Russia would have the upper hand, while underestimating Ukraine.
“I think there was still an expectation that Russia, just based upon the size of their military population differentials and so on, would be far more successful than they have been, and that we would not find ourselves in the stalemate that exists today," he said.
Murrett added that the past four years have clearly demonstrated the resilience and success of Ukrainian Armed Forces.
“The Ukrainian army is the most effective army in Europe. There's no question," he said. "They're just tenacious. They have absorbed advanced technologies in ways that are truly remarkable, not just unmanned aircraft and drones, but a lot of other battlefield techniques.”
He said the war has actually made Ukraine’s military even stronger, if not weary after four years of battle.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates the war has killed at least 325,000 Russian troops and up to 140,000 Ukrainian troops. But Murrett said even worse for Russia is its self-inflicted diplomatic isolation.
“The tolerance that exists with this insular team and the Kremlin, Putin and his cronies to continue the war, I think will unfortunately continue for some period of time," he said. "We would like to see a diplomatic solution tomorrow, but it's difficult to see that happening.”
Meanwhile, Murrett said in the absence of U.S. support, Western European countries, along with Canada, South Korea, and Japan continue to provide Ukraine with the resources they need to maintain the fight.
SUPPORT WANES FOR UKRAINIAN REFUGEES
Ukrainians fleeing their war-torn country have fewer escape options now than they did four years ago when Russia’s invasion began.
As Central New Yorkers hung Ukrainian flags, SU Assistant Anthropology Professor Lauren Woodard said the United States and European Union deployed their own coordinated responses to provide relief and asylum.
“These were really innovative responses to such widespread, rapid displacement that we hadn't seen before," she said. "But 4 years later, that has really shifted.”
Woodard said the Trump Administration discontinued the Biden-era Uniting for Ukraine program, and support in Europe is more fragmented.
“This EU level response is being replaced by individual country responses, which is withdrawing support," she said. "In Poland, where many people live, the Polish government this month announced that they would not be extending that temporary protection status to Ukrainians.”
Woodard said many countries are modeling their response on the U.S. refusal to accept refugees. But she and other scholars have observed a more cyclical migration.
“People might be in Poland or in Lithuania or Estonia and they go back to Ukraine for a few months to visit family or to support especially elderly people, and then they go back to Poland," she said.
Ironically, Woodard said Ukrainians are also moving to and from Russia as they did during the 2014 conflict because there’s no other choice. She observed as much doing research there in 2014.
“Some people went to universities across Russia, where Russia has the support for people to have permanent paths to citizenship if you graduate from a university," she said. "And many of those people that I had done my research with went back to Ukraine between when things had stabilized.”
This time around, with both countries at a stalemate, it’s unclear just when they might consider returning to Ukraine.
