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Three ways that Syracuse can pull off the ultimate ACC Tournament upset against Duke

Syracuse fans cheer on the Orange during an ACC Tournament clash with Duke in 2019.
Cuse.com
Syracuse fans cheer on the Orange during an ACC Tournament clash with Duke in 2019.

Syracuse men’s basketball meets Duke in Round 3 of the ACC Tournament. Having been blown out twice by the Blue Devils this season, the Orange are heavy underdogs. WAER’s Carson Gambaro poses three scenarios that could lead to an improbable upset.

Yesterday, Syracuse (#9 seed, 16-16, 9-11 ACC) overcame a do-or-die tango with Florida State. The Orange didn’t just overcome the Seminoles; they absolutely clobbered their opponents, 96-57. The win snapped a four-game losing streak for SU, and guaranteed ‘Cuse nation one more day of basketball in the 2022 New York Life ACC Tournament.

Today, however, the theme of “survive and advance” becomes monumentally harder for the Orange.

It’s no secret that Duke (#1 seed, 26-5, 16-4 ACC) is as tough as they come in the Atlantic Coast Conference. As if a 20-point road beatdown in January didn’t give Syracuse the memo…

A 25-point steamrolling inside a packed Carrier Dome 12 days ago all but certified which team is greater.

Benny Williams was one of SU’s lone bright spots in the latest matchup. But then…

Losing Benny, a freshman bench player, is one thing. Losing Buddy Boeheim, a first-team all-ACC senior, is another.

Unfortunately for Syracuse, neither Benny nor Buddy will suit up against Duke.

And so, here we are. It’s the second week of March, the Orange are short-handed, and one more manslaughter away from officially missing their first NCAA Tournament since 2017.

All arrows seem to be pointing to one outcome: the end of what has been a mostly disastrous 2022. Is there any hope of salvaging Head Coach Jim Boeheim’s first ever losing regular season?

Rather than stating the logical answer, I’ve chosen to take a more optimistic approach. I’ve come up with three ridiculous possibilities that practically must occur if Syracuse hopes to make magic in Brooklyn.

Jimmy Boeheim (#0, left) and Syracuse celebrate a 96-57 victory over FSU in the Second Round of the 2022 ACC Tournament.
Cuse.com
Jimmy Boeheim (#0, left) and Syracuse celebrate a 96-57 victory over FSU in the Second Round of the 2022 ACC Tournament.

Ready? Break.

1. Two Orange players score at least 20 points

To hang with Duke, Syracuse obviously needs to score. But there’s more to the equation than simply putting up numbers. Neither Cole Swider’s 36 points against North Carolina nor Buddy’s 30 against Miami were enough to cement a victory.

Without Buddy, there’s almost no question: Swider is the guy. Two 25+ point performances in his last three games, including a game-high 28 against Florida State. The Villanova transfer came up with just a deuce against the Devils in the Dome. It’s safe to say he’ll have to improve upon that mark - at least twelvefold.

As to who complements Cole, it has to be Joe Girard. Jimmy Boeheim, Symir Torrence, and Frank Anselem/Bourama Sidibe thrive more on the interior. On the exterior, Girard and Swider each hit four threes against FSU. Look for the guard and forward to shoot early and often.

Bottom line: Syracuse is 4-2 when at least a pair of players contribute at least 20 to the scoreboard. Both losses came against Miami and Notre Dame on the road. In each of those blunders, SU allowed an opposing player to hit at least 5 of his triples. Which leads me to…

AJ Griffin (#21, blue) quiets the Dome crowd during a 25-point Duke win over Syracuse.
Duke Athletics
AJ Griffin (#21, blue) quiets the Dome crowd during a 25-point Duke win over Syracuse.

2. Syracuse limits Duke below 35% from range

Defensively, Syracuse has struggled to contain Duke early in games. Last time around, AJ Griffin and Paolo Banchero hit three trifectas apiece in the first 10 minutes of play.

Banchero’s dual presence in the paint, combined with center Mark Williams, created too many open opportunities against Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone.

“There was nothing we could do with their two big guys,” said Coach Boeheim after the 97-72 loss. “We tried to come back in, and then they [got] the threes. They all made them.”

Luck aside, SU’s defense did a tremendous job closing on State’s shooters yesterday. The Orange held the Seminoles to a meager 8% from beyond the arc.

Although Duke hits on nearly 38% of its deep shots, Coach K’s arsenal is not invincible. In the Blue Devils’ five losses this season, they’ve averaged below 32%. In the spirit of realism, I’ve set the bar in the middle: 35%.

If Syracuse can limit Duke to below this mark, the defense might have a chance. Additionally, the Orange cannot afford for Griffin to connect on at least 5 threes, as he has in both prior matchups.

Even still, none of the above will matter if the following doesn’t occur.

Syracuse players anticipate a defensive rebound during a blowout home loss to Duke.
Cuse.com
Syracuse players anticipate a defensive rebound during a blowout home loss to Duke.

3. SU’s forwards/centers play out of their minds on the glass

We already know Syracuse is depleted from the inside out. The Orange themselves knew that coming into the tournament. Yesterday, though, nothing stood in the way of a lights-out crashing of the boards.

The ‘Cuse outrebounded the ‘Noles 52-35. Previously this season, the Orange hadn’t won that battle by more than four.

The difference on this occasion was rooted in aggressiveness. When Sidibe faltered early, Anselem came in and grabbed 15 big ones, tying his career high. 9 of Frank’s rebounds came on the offensive glass. Swider also finished just one shy of his own career best with an impressive 13 boards.

Ultimately, the Orange proved that they could create second-chance opportunities for themselves yesterday. I’ve already outlined why doing so won’t be such a cake walk against Duke’s ferocious frontcourt.

I hereby coin the phrase, ‘out of their minds,’ because that’s simply the way SU needs to play if they hope to stay alive. Considering the Blue Devils have won both rebounding battles by double digits this season, the most feasible goal for the Orange is to tie them in that category.

The talent discrepancy is clear, yet so is the fact that you cannot score if you don’t have possession of the basketball. This third and final scenario which I’ve presented is essentially a prerequisite for the first two.

If Syracuse can’t secure possessions, they can’t score. If SU defends the trey ball, it won’t matter if they can’t reclaim the rock. The tasks are officially at hand, and now it’s time to lay it all out on the court.

Cole Swider (#21, white) pulls up for a shot against AJ Griffin (#21, blue).
Cuse.com
Cole Swider (#21, white) pulls up for a shot against AJ Griffin (#21, blue).

One final note

Duke games almost always have high stakes for Syracuse. Today’s game is different. As I touched on before, Syracuse is in a rare position. If the Orange lose today, they’re likely to miss out on the NIT for just the third time under Jim Boeheim.

The 2021-22 season has been filled with disappointments, heartbreaks and heartaches. So far in the ACC Tournament, SU appears determined to rip the monkey off its back.

“We’ve been in a lot of battles this year where we feel like we kind of game the game easy,” Swider said after the 39-point win over FSU. “For me, it was great to go out there and play like that as a team.”

As a team.

Cheesy, yes, but it’s important. As legendary NFL coach Bill Belichick says, “Do Your Job.” The saying goes for everyone in the locker room. That’s what simply has to happen this afternoon. Put up or shut up.

Not only could this be Syracuse’s final contest this season, this could very well be my final article for WAER. As an outgoing SU senior, nothing has been more fulfilling than making great radio for this great station. If this is indeed the last rodeo for the ‘Cuse, I hope my work has been a pleasure for you to follow throughout a challenging year.

Putting the cherry on top, this is almost certainly poised to be the final matchup between Boeheim and Krzyzewski.

It all happens right here on The Original Home of the Orange. Syracuse and Duke spar in the Barclay’s Center at noon, GZA Countdown to Tipoff begins our coverage at 11:30.