AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
Los Angeles released new estimates of the region's unhoused population earlier this month. The estimates show that after years of increases, the numbers in LA have gone down, despite the fact that homelessness is on the rise nationally. Nick Gerda has been covering homelessness for member station LAist and joins us now. Nick, good morning.
NICK GERDA, BYLINE: Thanks so much for having me.
RASCOE: So how significant of a drop did LA see?
GERDA: So this year, homelessness dropped by 4% across LA County, according to the latest official count. Last year, it was flat. It's a small reduction, but it's notable because it comes after years of increases up to last year, and many local officials hope it's a turning point in the crisis. Researchers like Sarah Hunter at the RAND Corporation, which is a research organization focused on public policy issues, they stress that these are just estimates and have serious limitations. But Hunter says other data sources, including RAND studies, show similar patterns, and she thinks the decline is reliable. That said, LA County is still home to one of the largest homeless populations in the nation, with about 72,000 people in the latest count.
RASCOE: So why are the numbers down?
GERDA: Well, homelessness experts point to a number of different factors. One is that over the last few years, both the city and the county have put a lot of money into programs offering temporary housing to people living on the street. Usually, that's a motel room. Experts say these programs are very expensive but seem to be working to at least get people off the street. Another thing experts point to is that earlier investments in longer-term housing are finally paying off. For example, back in 2017, LA voters approved a bond measure that promised to build 10,000 units over a decade. It took many years for that effort to produce really any new housing at all, but last year, officials say it brought online a record 3,000 new permanent supportive units in the region.
RASCOE: What makes this really stand out is 'cause homelessness is up around the country. What is making LA an outlier?
GERDA: Yeah, so LA does appear to be bucking the national trend. Last year, homelessness increased 18% nationwide. While we don't have complete 2025 national data yet, some major cities like Denver and San Jose continue to see increases, while others like San Diego have recorded declines like LA. But according to several homelessness researchers, one thing that really distinguishes the LA region is the high level of state and local dollars being spent. Voters in LA County have voted to tax themselves to raise about a billion dollars per year for homeless services and housing. But it's important to note that the LA area is one of the most expensive places for housing in the country. So that's one of the reasons why LA has been spending so much on homelessness.
RASCOE: Yeah, and the city is still a long way from fully fixing this problem. What will it take to find a long-term solution?
GERDA: Absolutely. Researcher Margot Kushel at UC San Francisco says the trends in LA show that fixing the crisis would take time.
MARGOT KUSHEL: This crisis arose from 45 years of really mistaken policies, where we underinvested in affordable housing, as well as underinvested in things like health care, mental health care and the like. And when it takes 45 years to create a crisis, it's unrealistic, unfortunately, to think it can be ended overnight.
GERDA: All of the experts we spoke with were in agreement that homelessness is being driven largely by the housing affordability crisis, and that the only way to come close to solving it will be to create a lot of housing that's affordable to people. And in the LA region, we're still short about half a million housing units, according to county officials.
RASCOE: President Trump has signed an executive order that seeks to incentivize states and cities to remove homeless encampments. It also calls to prioritize funding for cities that enforce camping bans. What does that mean for Los Angeles and its homelessness response?
GERDA: Well, it remains to be seen how this will all shake out, but LA County and the city of LA have not emphasized stepping up encampment bans to the degree that many other places have. Clearing encampments, by the way, is something that Governor Gavin Newsom has also strongly pushed for. So officials here say they're bracing for the possibility of major cuts to federal funding. The region is set to receive over $200 million in federal funding this fiscal year for homeless shelters and services.
RASCOE: Nick Gerda with LAist. Thanks so much for being with us.
GERDA: Thanks so much for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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