Business leaders around Central New York have a mostly positive outlook on the region’s economy coming out of 2025 and looking ahead to 2026.
Centerstate CEO released its economic forecast Thursday of local businesses. National economists also weighed in on global trends and what to look for in our region.
Just about two-thirds of local businesses (67%) say the current state of the economy is good or excellent. Looking ahead, more than six-in-ten (64%) believe their performance will be better in 2026, and an even larger majority (77%) has a positive outlook for the region.
The survey of businesses took place before the Micron groundbreaking Jan 16. Centerstate Vice President of Strategy, Policy and Planning Ben Sio noted the rosy employment picture doesn’t yet include any of the boost Micron is expected to have on the region.
“But it happened at a time in Central New York where we’ve had the best year in job growth that we’ve had in 20 years, significantly outpacing every other upstate community and the state average. That’s not happened in Central New York in two decades," said Sio
Of course, any economic forecast couldn’t avoid what was called the Micron Moment, an inflection point for growth. Sio added that there are as many as 165 companies that could benefit from being part of the supply chain for the high-tech giant. One challenge he noted was the need for growth in Black- and minority-owned businesses.
OTHER FINDINGS FROM THE 2026 ECONOMIC FORECAST SURVEY
Of those surveyed:
- 68% expect sales or revenues to increase in 2026, down 9% from last year.
- 59% expect an increase in jobs and hiring in 2026, down 4% from last year.
- 60% expect to expand products and services this year, down 4% from last year.
- 53% expect to increase capital investments this year, up 8% from last year.
- 74% stated innovation and technology will positively impact their business in 2026.
Luke Tilley from Wilmington Trust Advisors gave a national perspective and started his presentation with the impacts of tariffs on U-S businesses and inflation. He said the volatile tariffs made things harder on some businesses. But another factor was how consumer behavior hurt other parts of the economy.
“With the slowdown in job growth, the slowdown in wage growth, what has happened is, if consumers are faced with higher prices because of tariffs on imported goods, they’ll spend less on other things such as services, movie tickets, entertainment, travel, haircuts, what have you,” said Tilley.
He forecast slow national growth for the coming year, around 1%, but had better long-term optimism. He said he expects artificial intelligence will eventually improve productivity. But, like the internet in the late 1990s, it will take AI several years to start making that impact.
Major concerns of local business that could limit growth include:
- Federal policy or regulatory requirements/changes (64%)
- U.S. trade policy (e.g., tariff policy) (56%)
- Employee benefits and costs (53%)
Businesses also expressed concern about the availability of trained workers; availability and affordability of housing, especially as population grows due to Micron and other job increases; and uncertainty about federal and state policies.
Analysts concluded that this region is in a good position to benefit from growth in high tech and drone industries, and can capitalize on recent history of having that growth reduce poverty and inequality.
