The New York State Fair is celebrating its 185th year in Syracuse. Since opening in 1841, it’s grown to be the state’s largest annual celebration, with faster rides, larger concerts and weirder food every year.
But as fairgoers walk the stimulating midway, the farmers bringing their livestock and produce to the fairgrounds are struggling, as President Donald Trump’s newest trade war with Canada adds pressure to farmers across the state.
“The tariff and trade situation has done nothing but create more risk and more uncertainty,” Brian Reeves said. He manages 350 acres of vegetables and berries in Baldwinsville.
“What are the prices going to be tomorrow? Is our customer going to be upset with us or not?” Reeves continued, "Every day, every news cycle, there's a new curve thrown at us.”
John Bittner, an apple farmer based in Western New York, says about 25% of his apples need to be exported to keep prices at an even level. Canada is his biggest importer.
“Canada's doing everything they can to buy apples elsewhere,” he said, “So we're losing markets because of that.”
The trade dispute is forcing farmers to reconsider not just where they sell, but what they can afford to grow. Due to the uncertainty surrounding what trade moves will come next, Bittner estimated his farm had 100 acres of open land, where he’d normally be planting fruit trees.
“We have no certainty of what's going on next. So we're really just sitting on our hands at this point,” he said.
Last week, President Trump assured a Canadian trade compromise was imminent.
“We have to take care of our farmers. The farmers are very important to me. And the deal with Canada is moving along,” the President said. “I only make good deals.”
Hours later the United States–Canada trade deal expired, and a 50% American tariff activated on more than $25 billion of Canadian goods.
Canada’s Prime Minister, Mark Carney, responded with a dollar-for-dollar and rate-for-rate retaliatory tariff. He says Trump’s administration asked for too much and offered too little in talks.
“The new U.S. tariffs are designed to hurt us and divide us. I warned that America is trying to break us so they can own us. And I promise that will never, ever happen.”
At the fairgrounds Wednesday, New York Governor Kathy Hochul made her traditional visit to open the fair, but made it a point to commiserate with the farmers.
“Just leave the farmers alone for a day even, and they'll be far better off,” Hochul said. “Just back off. It's my strong message to the Trump administration. You may have never been on a farm.”
Scott Osborn oversees a 50 acre vineyard along the edges of Seneca Lake. For some Finger Lakes wineries, the problem is no longer simply getting American wine into Canada. Their buyers are having trouble moving it once it gets there.
“Both my importers say they can't give American wines away. They can't give them away,” Osborn said.
Osborn said that could leave an industry already built around exports fighting for room in an increasingly crowded domestic market.
“I don't know how our industry in the Finger Lakes is really going to survive,” Osborn continued, “We need help.”
The effects of the trade fight are reaching beyond this year’s harvest. They’re changing how some farmers think about whether to invest at all.
Helen Thomas, executive director of the New York State Maple Producers Association, says some producers have already canceled equipment orders after tariffs drove up the cost of Canadian-made tanks and evaporators.
“A number of producers who are going to expand this year canceled their orders for tanks because it wasn't the price that was quoted and they couldn't afford it,” Thomas said.
For maple producers, those decisions can shape the industry for years.
“When somebody expands, they're looking at a 15-year plan,” Thomas said. “So it's really going to reduce the amount of maple that's produced in New York State because people can't expand.”
The lights of the State Fair’s midway will eventually dim and the crowds will fade. For New York farmers, the uncertainty over what comes next could last much longer.
